Climate change educators should discuss uncertainties in climate change modeling

Climate change education (CCE) is complex yet critical for future generations. A significant component of CCE includes modeling because of the many spatial and temporal challenges to conducting climate change experiments in a lab at scale. However, climate models are not always complete since many factors (e.g., future population size, technology innovations, etc.) may still be unknown or cannot be accounted for as they may happen in the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading research consortium of climate change scientists. In their Fifth Assessment Report (2014), the IPCC outlined the strengths and limitations of climate data and climate models, which included the qualitative confidence in the data and the quantitative measure of uncertainty based on statistical analysis. Though much research has been conducted on student understanding of climate change, there exists a gap in understanding student conceptualization of the uncertainties surrounding climate change and climate change models. The researchers in this study interviewed high school geography students in Germany to see whether they could identify the main reasons for climate modeling uncertainties.

The study took place in Germany with 18 high school geography students aged 16- to 18-years-old. The first part of the study required the students to contribute to a climate change-focused project supervised by climate experts and meteorology students. As part of the project, the students went to the German Climate Computing Centre and sat in on a lecture on climate modeling to inform their exercise to model climate maps with climate data through the year 2100. Within three to six months of completing the model, each student presented their project results and wrote a scientific paper. The researchers then conducted group interviews with the students in four groups of four or five students. The interviewers posed three open-ended questions that focused on information about climate change and the limits of scientific knowledge, uncertainty in the context of climate change, and the certainty of climate change knowledge. The students' answers were analyzed by the researchers.

The researchers categorized the three main reasons as: 1) deficiencies of climate models; 2) limited knowledge of the climate system; and, 3) external influences on climate. The students identified some components of each of these three reasons for uncertainties in CCE, but they did not identify every component within them. For example, the students shared about the limitations in modeling software and commented how they felt uncertain in the scientists' accuracy in producing models. Regarding the current limits of understanding the climate system, the students acknowledged there may be unknown inputs for climate models that may affect the model's accuracy and neglect the full complexity of the climate system. Finally, the students shared concerns about external influences on the climate system that may not be represented in the modeling, or its full extent is unknown. For instance, the students questioned the exact impact of solar radiation and human activities on the entire climate system. In total, the students identified four of five components in deficiencies of climate models, one of six components in limited knowledge of the climate system, and three of many in external influence on climate as defined by the researchers.

Overall, the interview results showed the students understood the technical limitations of climate modeling but still had limited knowledge of climate systems. Student understanding of technical modeling limitations was attributed to the lecture at the German Climate Computing Centre. This exposure to a learning setting that is new to the students may have incited more enthusiasm for learning. The students did not share the challenges of modeling specific inputs such as feedback mechanisms like albedo or the extended time delay of cause and effect in the atmosphere and oceans. The researchers attributed this to either very limited climate system knowledge in students or to the possibility the students in the interviews did not understand the question.

There were limitations in this study, and the results are not generalizable. The researchers shared the students asked for interview questions to be repeated which may indicate a lack of understanding or ability to fully articulate their thoughts. The study did not consider the impact of the students' geography teachers and their teaching style during the project timeframe. There were only 18 students involved in the study, which is not representative of all high school students in Germany. Finally, the researchers did not implement a pre-test for a baseline of the students' understanding of climate modeling uncertainties nor a control group (i.e., a group of students that did not participate in the project) to compare results against the experiment group.

The researchers asserted science communication is essential in CCE. For example, teachers should be equipped to discuss climate model uncertainties in the classroom and review the IPCC's definition of climate research.